What does Makerfield make of Burnham's by-election bid, and can he win?

The residents of Makerfield are about to find themselves at the centre of the political universe. A by-election that could decide the next prime minister is set to take place on their doorstep, with Andy Burnham confirmed as seeking permission to stand.

The constituency, home to around 76,000 voters in the suburbs of Wigan and nearby former mining towns and villages, has been a safe Labour seat since it was created in 1983. But Reform UK swept the board in the recent local council elections, and the party's deputy leader Richard Tice has said Reform will be "throwing everything possible" at ensuring a "seismic" win.

The by-election is tentatively scheduled for Thursday, June 18, during the same week Sir Keir Starmer is due at a G7 summit in France.

What are local voters saying?

Many voters who spoke to the BBC believe Burnham will face a difficult challenge, regardless of which party they support.

Nursery worker Penelope Nelson described herself and her family as "fans" of Burnham. "He knows what the people want and he stands for that," she said. But she added: "He'll have a fight on his hands."

Retired voter Stan Crook was more sceptical. "This has been a Labour stronghold since I've been voting 45 years ago, but I do think he'll really struggle with this one," he told BBC Radio Manchester. "Nobody's got any faith in Keir Starmer. He's not done enough."

He said he believed Burnham was standing to "feather his own cap" and predicted: "I think Reform will take over."

But Alan Entwistle, a carpet cleaner, praised Burnham's record as mayor. "He's done brilliantly with the buses and everything else. He knows what he's doing."

Gabriel Parkinson, who works in the charity sector, said she favoured the Greens but would vote for Burnham in this by-election as "the choice we have against Reform."

Helen Raymond said she was "quite surprised" by how strongly the Reform vote grew at the local elections but was "quietly optimistic," pointing to Burnham's involvement in Leigh Sport Village and his response to illegal rubbish dumps as evidence he "does care about this area."

Can Burnham actually win?

Polling expert Sir John Curtice told Politico that Labour would have "less than 5% chance" in the by-election "if it were anyone other than Andy Burnham." He added: "If he manages to win this, he will certainly be demonstrating his ability to win constituencies you would expect most Labour politicians to lose at the moment."

The numbers show why. At the 2024 general election, Josh Simons won with 45.2% of the vote and a majority of 5,399. Reform came second on 31.8%. The seat is 29th on Reform's target list, needing a swing of just over 6.7% to take it.

In the recent local elections, Reform pulled in roughly 50% of the vote share across the area, with Labour at 27%, the Greens at 10%, Conservatives at 7% and Lib Dems at 4%.

Outgoing MP Simons told the BBC he was confident Burnham could win but admitted there was a "really tough fight" on his hands.

What about Burnham's track record?

Burnham has a long history in the area. Before becoming Greater Manchester Mayor in 2017, he was elected four times as MP for the neighbouring Leigh constituency. He was re-elected as mayor in 2021 and again in 2024 with 63.4% of the vote. In Wigan specifically, he received 66%.

He has been given permission by officers on Labour's NEC to stand in the candidate selection process. He will now need to be approved by the local Labour Party in Makerfield.

Will the Greens stand aside?

Former Green leader Caroline Lucas has suggested her party should not contest the seat to give Burnham the best chance of seeing off Reform. "There are times when it's more important to put country before party. This is one of them," she wrote on X.

The Green Party has said it has started its selection process, but has downplayed its prospects in Makerfield.